Friday, May 12, 2006

Short Term Volatility within expected bounds

Yesterday Dow down 140+. This morning futures down big. To be expected with current news. Market will absorb it and behave within expected volatility parameters; system is not critical and will not "crash" at this point.

I repeat, remember the ABC's that I mentioned earlier. A rigorous application of traditional deep value metrics is, and will be the way to go.

Clarification: Nobody will ever be able to say with certainty that a complex dynamic system will have a six sigma or larger event in a specific time period; the best one can do is understand if the system has reached a point of "self organized criticality" and is then susceptible to a large event. The latter in of itself is of great value as you can hedge, and in parallel the system has reached a point of diminishing returns and decisions regarding asset allocation can be made more effective.

Monday, May 01, 2006

The large complex dynamic system we call the Stock Market is not self-organizing at this point. The system is far from critical. Value has done well as I said it would, and it will continue to do so for as far as I can see. There is no danger of a catastrophic >six sigma failure. A large unforeseen event even equivalent to 9-11 would not have the same effect.

As far as the stock market. Traditional valuation metrics with a priority placed on strong balance sheets and strong cash flows, enabling one to buy a future dollar at a discount today are, and will be the way to go. Stay away from momentum/greater fool concepts.

Taking this into account, passive diversified low expense ETF's come to mind also, if they are exposed to above mentioned parameters. I will be more specific shortly.